Mumbai: Gaining from safe haven buying post the Brexit referendum, gold prices are likely to remain firm and touch Rs 33,500 by the year-end due to factors like US elections, ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in currency markets, experts said. “Post-Brexit, there is uncertainty that will be positive for gold. By December 2016, we expect gold to reach around Rs 33,500,” Commtrendz Research Director Gnanasekar Thiagarajan told PTI. Gold is expected to touch USD 1,475 an ounce by December-end, he added. Prices of the yellow metal surged by 8.2 per cent to USD 1,319 an ounce on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union.
In India too, prices zoomed by over Rs 1,000 to rise over Rs 30,875 for 10 grams. Thiagarajan said central banks in EU and the UK are expected to resort to monetary easing and stimulus packages to boost their respective economies. “Such measures would boost gold prices, as the cost of holding gold decreases and the potential to rise during times like this makes it more attractive compared to other risky assets,” he added. Besides this, other risk events like the US election and Chinese debt levels are a matter of huge worry for investors, he said.
Angel Broking Associate Director – Commodities and Currencies Business, Equity Research – Naveen Mathur said the US dollar is likely to weaken going forward, which initially may be firm due to Brexit, making gold a safe haven for investors. “Weaker US dollar, which is negatively co-related with gold, is likely to make it an attractive asset class. In the short term, gold may hold at Rs 31,500-32,500 levels and in the international markets, it is likely to be at USD 1,400 levels. Economic and political uncertainty will also keep gold bullish,” he added.
SMC Global Securities AVP, Commodity Research (Fundamental) Vandana Bharti said the ongoing geopolitical tension, good ETF (electronic traded fund) inflow and festive demand will support gold. “There are ongoing geopolitical tensions, the US elections and slowdown in Chinese economy which will have a positive impact on gold prices. Brexit will take two years to be completed as the process will be a long one,” she said. Gold prices are likely to test USD 1,440 on the upper side and USD 1,220 on the lower side by the end of 2016, she said. “In rupee terms, we are expecting gold to be at Rs 34,000-35,000 on the upper range and it will not fall below Rs 28,000,” she added.
G V Sreedhar, chairman of All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation (GJF) said the rising prices of gold is in line with market expectations and has created a positive consumer sentiment and the demand is growing. “There is too much volatility in the market and the gold prices are expected to touch USD 1,400 by end of 2016 or mid-2017. “In a week or two, it will settle down as both jewellers and consumers will adjust the rising prices. Good monsoons will also boost consumer sentiments and support in increasing the sale of jewellery this season,” he added. PTI
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